He / They

  • 13 Posts
Joined 1 year ago
Cake day: June 16th, 2023

  • Harris - if Biden steps aside right now, Harris would be the presumptive replacement without actually needing to wait until the convention.

    Buttigieg - already has national recognition and is a proven effective and persuasive speaker- he literally gets sent on Fox News to debate them because he’s so cogent and fast that none of their talking heads can beat him, and if Biden exits and it does go to an open, televised, convention, he would be well-positioned to invigorate the base

    Whitmer - less name recognition for her policies, she is a strong speaker, and doesn’t have the baggage that e.g. Newsom does (although to be fair it’s not Democratic baggage, it’s anti-California Republican rhetoric)

  • Your argument is literally to give up and sit on your hands and just hope and pray that no one notices we’re putting a senile individual into the most powerful job position in the world. Oh, and whatabout Reagan.

    Biden is one man and it is the Biden administration.

    The cabinet and administration are not there to Weekend at Bernie’s the President.

    And really let’s say you are right about Biden. Then we get to chose between two people in the same boat. One’s a dangerous narcissist and one is a good man.

    Who is no longer in full control of his faculties. Which is a horrible choice. You’re arguing against trying to make that choice something else.

    if there was a younger stellar dem candidate who could viable take on, ok then

    There are, but no matter who anyone says, you’ll write them off for one reason or another.

    This is not strategy or sound reasoning, it’s fecklessness. It’s fear of making the wrong choice, so you’d rather walk away from the trolley switch and wash your hands of it. When Biden loses, all the people arguing for him to stay in won’t actually have to take any responsibility for their part in Trump being back in office. I’m sure they’ll just find a way to blame everyone else- probably for “not being on-board” enough (which is exactly why Biden shouldn’t still be running- candidates are supposed to be who people want running).

  • I mean, yes? Just because it’s a precedent here doesn’t make it democratic.

    It’s literally a practice that denies or heavily suppresses having a healthy crop of new primary candidates to vote for, which makes the party much less responsive to voter sentiment changes.

    8 years is a LONG time, and yeah, a lot of people who felt that a candidate represented them 4 years ago may not feel they do anymore, and they still deserve the same chance to democratically decide who represents them.

    Without that happening in the primary, their only options are to get no say in their candidate, withhold their vote, or vote for another party, in the general election.

  • I will not accept his debate performance as an answer. Because, while it was horrible, he has had plenty of excellent speeches before and after.

    That’s not how mental decline works, my dude. It’s not some steady progression, it happens in fits and episodes. But it only gets worse. Like forgetting that someone you wrote a statement of condolence for is dead, and calling for her at an event (Rep. Wolarski), or thinking that you just had conversations with people who have been dead for years (Mitterrand, Kohl)

    If you legitimately have not seen someone go through this kind of mental decline, I am happy for you, because it sucks. My grandmother is getting really bad at this point, and it hurts to watch. But denying it and pretending these are just moments of normal forgetfulness rather than living in the past that is common for people in mental decline, is cruel and irresponsible.

    Is he in a really terrible place right now? Doesn’t seem like it. But neither was my grandmother just 2 years ago, and we’re not choosing him for how is is today, we’re choosing him based on how he might be the next 4 years.

  • I know at least 3 friends who are not voting for Biden, over Gaza. My guess is they all abstain entirely. They probably won’t matter, because they’re in California.

    I know several “closet-Conservatives” (working in tech, that’s pretty common) who seem to be split pretty evenly on whether Trump is a positive or negative to them, but only one has expressed interest in a specific non-Trump candidate, which was Ramaswamy (and in 2016, Yang). 2 of them moved to Texas from California, over the past presidential term.

    Family member-wise, most of them- sadly- are Trumpers, and not malleable. They’re pretty geographically-dispersed.

    The exceptions are my and my partner’s dads, who are never-Trumper Republicans, who both voted Blue in 2016. They both consider themselves “Eisenhower Republicans” (smdh). They’d both switch back to voting Red with a non-Trump candidate.

  • but which democrat candidate has a better chance?

    Based on recent polling, potentially most of them could surpass him with even a little bit of national exposure. No clue if it’s too late, or not, but better to try than just concede the election to Trump.

    I think if there was a big frontrunner they would do this.

    The DNC was pressuring other potential Democrat candidates not to run during the Primary (including the most prominent names now like Newsom, Whitmer, and Buttigieg) from the get-go, so I guarantee they’re not about to do a 180. The DNC would rather lose to Trump than run a candidate they did not ordain. Remember in 2008 when they did literally everything they could to stop Obama winning against Clinton until they had no other choice? Or 2016, which was a whole mess of undemocratic bullshit (that article is wild, and it was written by Donna Brazile, the Chairperson of the DNC during the 2016 election).

    But also even if they don’t replace Biden that doesn’t somehow make Trump a better choice… Spending so much time labouring this point

    No one is talking about voting for Trump, what we’re saying is that we don’t think Biden is going to win against Trump. That’s the reason this is worth spending so much time belaboring; to me, Biden is delivering us into Trump’s hands.

    If you believe Biden might win, then it’s ‘Chance of Winning with Biden’ versus ‘Chance of Winning with [Replacement]’, and who really knows what their chances might be?

    If you don’t believe Biden might win, it’s ‘Assured Loss with Biden’ versus ‘Chance of Winning with [Replacement]’, so obviously that would be the route to go.

  • Polling is incredibly unreliable. That is people that pick up the phone and talk to pollsters. Do you know anyone under 60 who does that? Additionally, a lot of those calls are on landlines. How many people do you know who have landlines? How many of those are under 60? The polls are heavily skewed towards boomers.

    All these incorrect assumptions of yours could have been answered simply by actually reading the poll report before making claims about it:

    On June 28, 2024, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,011 U.S. likely voters nationally using web panel respondents.


    Literally entirely online.

    Polling has long since shifted away from relying on landline cold-calls. And I agree that now is certainly sub-optimal for a change; that should have happened during the Primary (you know, where candidates present themselves to voters to find out who voters want), rather than the DNC pressuring other democrats out of running. But better late than never.

    In the end, you and I are probably never going to see eye-to-eye, because of one fundamental difference of beliefs; you believe Biden might win. I don’t.

    Since it seems clear that Biden isn’t going to step aside, I really hope you’re right and I’m wrong, but I’m not banking on it.

  • Here we’ve been being lectured that we don’t understand the stakes if we don’t all line up behind Biden, rather than insisting we need someone else.

    Turns out, we were right all along, and Biden doesn’t understand the stakes, and is totally fine losing so long as he ‘gives it his all’.

    He won’t pack the court. He won’t do anything to forestall Project 2025. He’ll just pat himself on the back behind his lifelong Secret Service protection and tell himself there was nothing he could do but hand the country over to a dictator.

    Edit: Polling - released by Biden’s campaign to try to prove his electability - shows other Democratic candidates right now performing just as well or slightly better than Biden with voters, and none of them have been running a campaign for the last year. In other words, without even trying, they are on par with Biden, and none of them have the baggage he does.