It’s pretty simple really.

The big reveal is a huge wtf to my brain.

The Jubilee is a time of celebration for Catholics.

Traditionally, the Jubilee is held every 25 or 50 years and is a time to celebrate progress, free slaves (back when slaves were legal), forgive sins, etc etc.

In a great celebration, it makes sense to add a bit of pop culture flair. It’s also common to focus on children and youth outreach during the Jubilee and an anime character does a lot for that.

As for Luce herself. The Jubilee is also a time of great pilgrimages. It’s recommended to get your 'once in a lifetime’s visits to Vatican City (or other local holy sites: Santiago de Compostela, Fatima, Guadalupe). As such, Luce is modeled after the image of Pilgrims: Pilgrim staff, raincoat and dirty boots.

Her eyes are of the seashell, a Catholic sign for pilgrims. The seashells guide pilgrims to holy sites (if you’ve ever been on the Camino, all the next locations are marked with Seashells).

I’m expecting that Luce (thanks to the seashell eyes) will count as an official signpost for the next year of pilgrimages. She’s got incredibly well thought out symbology here.

Edit: I should also note that the raincoat has the 2025 Jubilee of Hope flag on it.

In case you didn’t get what that green spot on the raincoat was.

https://taxheaven3000.com/

Oh I get it.

They’re all cousins. /Trolololol

Remember Sailor Moon Dub anyone?

1. Anti-federalism – Deep rooted distrust of the Federal Government has been around since the dawn of the USA, though its often been part of the minority.

2. Know Nothing / Native American Party – 1850s era movement. Protectionist, isolationist, nativist. Originally they popped up as anti-Irish and anti-Catholic, but overall the concept is that immigrants suck. The modern concept is: “I know nothing”, about the movement. The overall idea is that even in the 1800s, it was bad to look like a racist bigot, so you’d keep your support for these causes secret. Everyone in the party knows that “the Know Nothings are larger than everyone expects”, but no one really knows how big the movement is. And that’s the point.

3. America First – 1930s saw the rise of Fascism vs Communism in Europe with the dawn of the Spanish civil war. The “America First” movement focused on isolationism and even pro-German / Nazi slant mixed with religious fervor. This was pushed by tech-gurus of the time: Charles Lindberg (airplane entrepreneur, first Trans-atlantic flight, etc. etc.), and the Christian Front. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_Nazi_rally_at_Madison_Square_Garden).

4. NAFTA – 1990s free-trade by Bill Clinton opened up Mexico and Canada as incredible trading partners. However, local industry / local steel lost out as companies started to shop in Mexico for material. As Bill Clinton was a huge pusher of NAFTA, the anti-NAFTA political group consolidated under Republicans. This is likely where the bulk of blue-collar workers is coming from, especially because Trump started adding Tariffs / anti-globalism concepts back to the forefront of American Politics.

Some more recent context:

1. Trump has been building his brand for decades as a very rich, very macho straight-talker. Even in the 80s and earlier, there’s a large number of Hotels, Casinos, Resorts, Golf Courses (etc. etc.) that have relatively high reputation among Americans in general with Trump’s name.

2. Trump reads from the teleprompter in “another voice”, openly showing his disdain for public speaking and the political system. Anyone who has lost faith in the political system loves this. Trump pretends that the teleprompter is forcing him to talk and its all just a “through the motions” thing. Then Trump obviously goes off teleprompter and talks about different concepts, the “real stuff”. (Or so goes his branding). This simple trick is enough to get the gist to his followers: don’t listen to what I say (because I’m being forced to say this politically correct crap). This means that Trump’s true actions are only limited to the imagination of the listener.

3. Trump is playing and leaning into the borne again Christian role. From a religious perspective, the “former enemy / former outsider” coming into religion is a common story and religious love it. Trump was openly a Democrat in the 90s / 00s before switching into Republicanism.

The “bulk” of Trump’s political style is Know Nothing + Macho + anti-political correctness.

First hit on Google was this list made by some Redditor: https://www.reddit.com/r/Betamax/comments/z8cun4/films_that_only_exist_on_betamax_or_alt_editions/

In any case: the big advantage of Betamax (and VHS) was how easy it was to get home-recordings done. An entire generation of family photos / family events (birthday parties, etc. etc.) are on Betamax and likely lost.

deleted by creator

Flash still got it good.

Consider the entire generation of 1970s and 1980s Betamax footage that is basically lost today.

When format wars snap to one side: VHS vs Betamax, HD-DVD vs BluRay, Flash vs HTML5, QuickTime vs DivX… The losing side basically loses a ton of footage.

For the most part, we know how to play Flash right now and mostly how to upconvert it or otherwise archive it. That’s not true of all formats.

Foil here. Tall people suck to fight against. Skilled tall people were straight up impossible.

And I at least have right-of-way to deal with tall people. Eepee don’t got that, its all stupid hand-jabs or foot-jabs (as far as I can tell as a Foil-ist, lol).

that short fencers are usually quicker and dodge easier.

Lulz.

No. It’s that shorter fencers must doge quicker to compete.

In my days in College, as a 5’9" average guy, I wasn’t much faster than anyone else. And without any reach I couldn’t keep up vs the taller people either.

Just being shorter doesn’t make you faster.

And a tall guy is usually bigger than a short one, so he’s a bigger target - and then there’s his juicy belly right on a convenient line of shots for a short fencer.

Just gain some flexibility and squat down deeper. The good tall fencers could hit me in my belly consistently despite me being shorter.

And while squatting down, your tall legs are longer anyway so you can lunge deeper when you do this maneuver. We shorter fencers cannot.

That’s not what is being reported. They are still making advances. Even pro-Ukrainian channels are reporting this.

Advancements of a few sq. kms a day mean nothing compared to 2022 or 2023 style movements that the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army (when Russia attacks) or Ukrainian Counter-offensive (in late 2022) performed.

The line is more static today than ever before.

Kinda false, there are a number of videos showing artillery hitting moving targets, maybe those are rare, but they are non-zero.

It requires special rounds like Copperhead (laser guided artillery), or BONUS (Infrared Guided / Heat guided Artillery). These rounds are very special and are not typical artillery. And they only work in very specific circumstances.

Copperhead needs someone at the frontline shining a laser to pinpoint the target. BONUS only works vs hot tanks or vehicles. So “some”, very rare very expensive artillery rounds, can hit a moving target. But we can ignore them for the most part since the 99% of artillery rounds used are dumb rounds.

If the glide bombs are easy to intercept, why are Uranians complaining about them all the time?

Because Ukrainian defenses only work vs glide bombs if they have an ambush setup. And Ukrainians have very few anti-air missiles. Russia only has to attack randomly along the front, and the Ukrainian ground defenses are too slow to reposition to the movements of Russian aircraft.

But Ukraine is 100% allowed to intercept and kill Russian fighter/bombers using these glide bombs. Ukraine simply doesn’t have the capacity to effectively and reliably do so however. That’s why F16s are so important, they are fast enough to launch air-to-air missiles vs the glide bombers and whittle the Russian aircraft down more reliably.

As for the American systems, it seems odd that if Ukraine already has unlimited permission, why are there still articles about Ukraine asking for it repeatedly?

Its not what you said earlier. What the Ukrainians wish is for more permissions. Ukrainians want deep strikes that can target Russian Air Bases. Ukraine wants to hit the fighter/bombers on the ground before they take off. These locations are so deep into Russia that USA is nervous about authorizing it, as it’d definitely be another escalation.

But Ukraine is 100% allowed (and already has), shot down Russian fighter/bombers on glide bomb maneuvers. Its a difficult shot for a ground-to-air system like Patriot. But it should get much easier to do after F16s arrive.

To be honest, we both want Ukraine to win, and all was saying is that in a modern war where both sides have access to a lot of resources, there are no wonder weapons that will shift the game sufficiently to push for a quick win and that we should not underestimate the enemy. Things help and we in the West, should be doing more to help.

F16s should be key for the glide-bomb problem. But I’m seeing estimates that Ukraine needs 200+ F16s for that to really be enough.

A dozen or so F16s is barely moving the needle. But at least Ukraine has some F16s coming and can start doing something about that particular problem.

They don’t need to

1st Guards Tank Army probably could face M1 Abrams in maneuver warfare. That was literally their training.

We’ve gone from a position where the Russians had a command of the frontlines, into a position where Russians are forced to use inferior equipment and ambush tactics. Its why the Russians are unable to effectively attack into Ukrainian defenses anymore.

Now you’re right in that Ukraine may not have the strength to attack into Russian defenses. But that’s what F16s are supposed to change. Is it enough? Who knows, but its better than nothing and better than what was available in 2023. What I can say for sure, is that Russia has also been unable to mount an effective attack.

In any case, I think the M2 Bradley is probably a match for T-55. M2 Bradley doesn’t have the same firepower, but it does have homing missiles. T-55 thin armor probably gets penetrated by enough M2 Bradley armor-piercing rounds (not that I’m an expert in that, but… M2 Bradley did take down more powerful tanks already). Its not what the M2 Bradley was designed for, but its showing the technological advantage Ukraine now commands on the front.

Remember: M2 Bradley is a troop-carrier. Not a tank. But it seems to match up favorably against many Russian tanks in practice, because Russians have had their forces degenerate so much.

at which point they are artillery and drone targets.

If you move, artillery can’t hit you. Artillery takes over a minute before it lands. That’s why tanks exist, tanks are close enough to bring the guns to the frontlines and instantly strike a target, because striking a target within 3km is just a few seconds at most… while striking a target 20km away with Artillery has all kinds of delays and downsides.

Drones are subject to electronic warfare and anti-air guns like the German Flakpanzer Gepard, or US’s MACE system (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5e-KIu7t3M). Aimbot + RADAR == dead drones. Yes, Ukraine needs to advance under the cover of anti-air (and those anti-air can be targeted by guide bombs or other more powerful weapons). But there’s a plan in place for that too.

For now they are unfortunately still making gains everyday.

Russia has still lost territory since 2022 actually. Russia has been unable to secure Donbas or Luhansk. Russia then starts a new front in Kharkiv and immediately stalls out.

Russia, even with all their meatwave attacks, was unable to cause anything like the 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Kharkiv_counteroffensive). It is Kyiv / Ukrainians who have effectively counter-attacked and changed territory last. Everything else is just a rounding error.

It seems that currently glide bombs are a large problem but for f16 to be effective, they need to have permission to engage russian fighter/bombers that tend to fire from deep inside russia, out of “allowed” reach for western missiles. To me thats a massive issue.

That’s not how glide-bombs work. Glide bombs don’t have any rockets, they literally fall into their target with little wings to extend the range a bit. Glide Bombs only have like 100km range or something like that, and the Fighter/Bombers that launch these glide bombs have already been taken out by well placed Patriot systems (or … something??. But probably Patriot missiles given what has been publicly released. I think there were some discussions that the Ukrainians made a ground-launched tube that can shoot air-to-air missiles from the ground… so its not necessarily the “Patriot” system that killed those fighter-bombers. But whatever it was, the Ukrainians have the capability for that kind of ground-based ambush today).

The problem is that its very difficult to constantly move Patriot systems (or any other ground-based system), so the Russians can just attack elsewhere. The Ukrainians need an aircraft that can meet the speed of enemy aircraft so that anti-air can follow Russians as they fly around the frontlines. But Ukraine is actually already in a position where they can position Patriot missiles (or whatever ground-based system they’re using) to stop glide-bomb attacks in one area. Ukraine just can’t afford to defend the whole frontline, and Ukraine cannot move those Patriots / ground defenses faster than Russia can move Glide-bomb / Jets.

Finally, USA has given permission to use American equipment anywhere the Russians are attacking from. Your point is moot as of a month or two ago, the Ukrainians already have that permission. Its simply an issue of capabilities.

Neither apparent hurt for vehicles or manpower losses deters them. Do see Ukrainians making some gains recently from time to time, but overall, its still not going well enough.

No one expects Ukraine to make gains this year. Everyone expects Russians to attack and pin everything on the hopes of Donald Trump winning the 2024 election (wherein Donald Trump then cuts off funding, preventing Ukrainians from counter-attacking next year).

That’s Russia’s plan. Ukraine has placed their trust / counter-offensive in the hands of the election. I don’t think Ukraine will surrender if Donald Trump becomes President though, Europe should be strong enough to keep Ukraine going even without the USA in 2025.

Problem is that they still have thousands in storage, even if they are in bad condition, a tank is a tank, it still has its place in war.

When we get to T-55, these tanks are unable to damage an M1 Abrams. Furthermore, T-55 are a stop-and-shoot tank, they’re unable to attack while moving. Etc. etc. And again: Russia has runout of tanks and IFVs in practice. A lot of today’s attacks in Kharkiv are motorcycle and golf-cart attacks.

I’m not saying that it will be easy. I’m saying that the change from highly regarded Russian 1st Guards Tank Army that took over huge swaths of Ukraine in the first weeks of the war is over. 1st Guards Tank Army has been crushed. Russia is reconstituting them now, but they are noticeably absent from the battlefield.

Then Wagner showed up with tanks and other advanced equipment. Now they’re gone.

And then we have shitty ass T-55s that are wholly outmatched by Leopard and Abrams. In an ambush maybe the T55 can still disable the tread and score mobility kills, but its really not as threatening as what Russia was sending initially. Luckily, the best Russian equipment seems to have already been wiped out from 2022 and 2023.

Obviously its not the time to get complacent. But we can’t deny the shift in Ukrainian’s favor.

Except that as an attacker you can choose where to attack and prepare to be there faster than the defenders can get people there. so you can attack with 30 where they only have 5 defenders and be gone before reenforcements arrive since they don’t know where you will attack until you start.

Satellites, Drones, and Landmines.

1. Both powers effectively have a Space program. I dunno what intelligence USA is sharing with Ukraine but surely USA’s satellites are part of the deal. Russia also has a space program and can similarly spy on movements from space.

2. Drones can see troop movements long before they reach the front.

3. For all other problems, you have landmines. Which slow down attacks and force them to be in single-file behind a landmine clearing machine. Spoiler alert: the attack will follow the path of the landmine clearing machine. Just let the machine finish and wait for the obvious attack, then ambush them.

The issue early in the war was that Ukraine didn’t have sufficient mechanized forces and a lot of Ukrainian fighting was done on foot (or if they were lucky: out of a Toyota pickup truck). Then in 2023, NATO provided significant numbers of tanks, M2 Bradleys and other equipment allowing for maneuver warfare and maneuver defenses.

As long as the Ukrainian defense stays watchful with Satellites, Drones, and Landmines, they always will meet the enemy in an advantage. That’s why the lines are so static. The problem also happened when Russia was on defense and Ukraine was on offense: Ukraine was unable to breakthrough because Russia could just copy this easy defensive strategy.

3-to-1 ratio was needed BEFORE Ukrainian war began. It has become abundantly clear that the new technological weapons have made the ratio worse. There’s some areas where Ukrainian defense can hold at 6-to-1 odds or even 10-to-1 odds. I don’t know what the new generals think of the new math, but everyone agrees that defense is king right now.

Its not people that Russia will run out of, but instead equipment.

Russia moved from T-72 tanks, to T-55 tanks, and now golf-carts and motorcycles. Russia has moved from 152mm artillery and regular thermobaric rockets to heavy mortar. And now that mortar is getting blown up, the Russians are begging the North Koreans for more shells and artillery.

We’re clearly witnessing the degeneration of the entirety of Russian force technology. Meanwhile, F16s are about to join the Ukrainian side as Ukraine gets more and more upgrades.

Once the equipment runs out, then what? No number of Russians on golf-carts / motorcycles will allow for a match vs a Ukrainian M2 Bradley.

You need over 3 attackers to counteract 1 defender today.

Any attack, especially in today’s always-connected, drone-scouted, satellite image war, will get counter-attacked / counter-bombarded by artillery, hampering the attacker and giving huge advantages to the defender.

Furthermore, well prepared landmines force attackers into performing tasks (ex: demining), which itself can be detected and reacted upon. (Ex: enemy tanks will always run single-file down a de-mined lane. You can take your time to position anti-tank Javelins, Stuga, or BONUS artillery given the obvious and predictable paths that landmines force).

Russia still outnumbers Ukraine. Having the Russians kill themselves over Ukrainian defenses is the best preparation, as it means there will be fewer defenders next year when Ukraine is ready to attack.

The only problem with the plan is that Russia might have been smart enough to defend and prepare instead. But Ukraine figured out the politics too well (ex: Russia clearly wants Donestk and Luhansk regions this much, and are willing to pay for it in blood). So Ukraine can just sit, defend, and deny Russian control over these regions. Leading to a political loss for Putin while still not having to deal with today’s defense-advantaged technology.

This has been known for some time.

Its also a year where Russia is going all out, sacrificing troops for miniscule gains. Its not the time to attack. Instead, its the time for Ukraine to sit back and defend. With any luck, Ukraine can minimize the Russian gains this year, and next year is the next chance they have (after Russian troops are exhausted) to do something about it.

Human hermits?

You might want to see who they threw into WW2.

Hint: It was the Ukrainians. The ability for Ukrainians to survive is epic. Still, we need to support them to minimize their pain, we don’t want them to suffer WW2-like losses again or be forced to bear such burdens for Russia in the future.