I mean, if nothing else they got Republicans to embrace gun control.

If it ain’t leaking that means it’s empty, etc…

My grandfather was a Marine and later a Secret Service agent. He didn’t tell many stories, but one of the few he did was about riding a helicopter down to the ground through autorotation during engine-out testing – this was apparently while they were qualifying the original Marine One for Eisenhower’s use.

Helicopters are sometimes rightly derided as “a collection of spare parts flying in loose formation” but in this case it seems like they were spitting in the face of God and daring him to do something about it – flying into dangerous terrain, in inclement weather, in what very likely was an old and ill-maintained aircraft. That’s a lot of bad choices to make at once.

This is the thing. Netanyahu is a sociopath who needs a forever war or else he eventually has to face the music. Without outside military intervention, this only ends in one of two ways:

1. either Bibi drags it out long enough to ethnically cleanse all of Gaza, claim he defeated Hamas, and memory-hole the intelligence failures that allowed the October 7 attacks to succeed in the first place, or

2. he loses control of his political coalition, elections are called, and he’s quickly removed from his PM position, put on trial for corruption and then thrown in prison for what will probably be the rest of his life.

Prolonging the war doesn’t guarantee he won’t end up in scenario 2 anyway, but from his perspective at the very least he’s running out the clock. Dead Gazans (and to a lesser extent dead Israelis) don’t matter to him.

I can’t wait for Cold War 2: Thermonuclear Boogaloo.

I mean, at this point an “ideal” solution (such as it is) would be for the US to stop stonewalling UN Security Council resolutions so that the other members can greenlight a peacekeeping operation a la Kosovo, that would stop the fighting, open up aid flows, and create an avenue for effective enforcement of the 1948 treaty boundaries on the way towards implementing a functional two-state solution. But that seems pretty unlikely right now.

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They’re flying these in very low and slow, which is hard for SAM radars to detect and lock on to unless you’re right up next to them – and once they’re past the front lines Russia doesn’t have many (if any) point defense installations.

In fact I imagine that the economic impacts of these attacks may be a secondary goal, and the main intent is actually to force Russia to pull SAM systems off the front line and redeploy them across the Russian interior to defend facilities they thought were safely out of Ukraine’s reach. The fewer defenses on the front line, the more capable Ukraine’s air force is to support efforts on the ground.

The “I’m gonna give you $100 to fuck off” school of military strategy.

This used to hold broad cultural applicability, back in the Before Times when the “Hitler Did Nothing Wrong” crowd was still excluded from the political mainstream. Norms excluding out-and-proud ethnofascists from official, public participation in the English-speaking political right started to seriously slip around the time of Obama’s election and certainly ceased to exist after Trump’s win in 2016, but prior to that time “Nazi” was very much more often an ad-hominem attack than an accurate description of somebody’s politics.

There are so many things that were horrifying about the US’s prosecution of the Global War on Terror, but at least when confronted with the same problem the US was like, “what if we invented a knife missile that can hit a guy in the driver’s seat of a car without hurting anybody standing next to the car?” whereas the IDF took the position that a 100:1 ratio of innocent bystander to presumed militant is totally acceptable (in an environment where fully half of those innocent bystanders are children to boot). Just absolutely ghoulish levels of inhumanity.

Given what they’ve done elsewhere I wouldn’t be surprised if it was 100% remote-piloted via satellite internet (most of their sea drones are controlled via Starlink, for instance) but in the case of fixed infrastructure, a smart fusion of GPS, IMU, and potentially video image matching for terminal guidance (these aren’t big bombs in the grand scheme of things and it’s important to hit the right part of a sprawling refinery or factory complex in order to knock it out for an appreciable amount of time) could overcome GPS jamming, and be well within the technical capabilities of the Ukrainian arms industry. TERCOM as implemented in the Tomahawk runs on early-80’s computing power, and it’s only gotten easier. Machine vision frameworks are widely available and well-understood software these days, and can run on fairly modest hobby hardware to boot.

What’s a little Third Reich here or Reign of Terror there between friends, eh? Besides , it’s not like a little bit of anti-intellectual purging or nationwide famine isn’t worth enduring to get to a better world for the people left afterwards!

I used to know a poli-sci researcher who was trying to take a big-data look at the success and failure of revolutions, taking in variables like “how many demonstrators rallied against the government?” “How many dissidents were disappeared by internal security forces?” and even things like “how many bullet holes are there on the buildings around the main protest venue in the capital?”

I asked him once if he’d discovered the secret to a successful revolution, and he just grimaced at me.

Ukraine claims north of 400k, which is undoubtedly optimistic, but allied intelligence agencies have previously floated numbers around 1/2 to 2/3rds of Ukraine’s public claims, which is still an utterly appalling number of dead Russian men. Russia’s tactical approach from the start has been more or less to treat their mobilized conscripts as expendable. For politically-important objectives their commanders have been perfectly happy to dump fresh meat into the metaphorical meat grinder until the gears jam, and then claim victory.

It’s a damn shame, too, because the commercial software in the sector is abusively overpriced, and there’s just nothing to be done about it (unless somebody can get antitrust regulators to pay attention, which hasn’t happened yet, and I’m not holding my breath for it).

It’s not like the FOSS options out there aren’t fundamentally capable of doing the job, either – it’s just that they almost universally seem to have been designed by people who think of GUIs as a concession to the normies, and don’t understand typical or expected design workflows. I’d love to be able to use FreeCAD instead of Fusion for hobby projects, but just creating a sketch in the former is like fighting through molasses compared to the process in Fusion. A bit of focus on UI instead of under the hood features would go along way towards making these programs viable competitors – look at how Blender’s perception changed amongst professionals after it ditched its idiosyncratic pre-2.7 UI, for instance.

Don’t even get me started on BIM software… Ridiculous subscription pricing, barely a bug fix to be found, and feature requests ignored for a decade or more! The last release of Revit’s headline new feature was (drumroll, please…) A dark UI mode. Good to see Autodesk put my employer’s seven-figure subscription payments to good use. 😑

But it did give us a damn fine concert movie from Muse, and that’s indisputable.

No… the point I am trying to make is that whether a position can be described as “radical” depends on the larger social and political context. Supporting communism was a radical position in Russia in 1915, but in 1925 it was mainstream. Supporting the monarchy was a mainstream position in France in 1785, but in 1793 it was dangerously radical. You can’t just arrange every political ideology that’s ever been imagined on a chart and then declare them “radical” or “mainstream” simply based on how far away from the center of the chart they are, because what’s mainstream (and how far away away from that you can drift without being seen as an extremist) depends on the larger sociopolitical milieu.

On the contrary, I think your information bubble is pretty limited if you think that a social-democratic position isn’t on the leftward fringe of the Overton window in America, where large parts of the political spectrum believe “the invisible hand” obviates the need for market regulations, and even the most basic and punitive of social safety-net programs get tarred as “communism!” by the mainstream right.

Oh no, they’re merely quite radical in the context of US politics, or mainstream leftist in the context of Scandinavian politics! You’re right – they must be shunned and mocked for this, that’s a surefire way for a fringe group to win hearts and minds…