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Cake day: July 15th, 2023

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  • That isn’t the definition of terrorism. There isn’t one globally agreed upon definition but national and international law and even attempts by the UN to make a definition generally exclude state militaries. (The UN attempts at a definition always broke down over the status of organized militias in the context of national liberation and self-determination struggles.)

    The main exception is undercover agents. Like if a CIA agent pretends to be a civilian and does a terrorist attack, that’s considered terrorism.

    Militaries can be awful and violent and commit war crimes and even do the exact same things as terrorists. But it isn’t considered terrorism; it’s considered war. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Definition_of_terrorism


  • I do think he believes he’s the best shot against Trump. He’s a politician. Basically every elected official in DC or a governor’s mansion thinks they’d be the best presidential candidate ever. Plus, he already beat Trump once and (according to 538’s polling average) is slightly ahead nationally.

    I didn’t support Biden in the 2020 primary and I’m not thrilled with a replay of 2020 but with everyone even older. But at this stage, Biden might be the best candidate. If he did step aside, the convention could easily divide the party and be a total disaster. Do they go with Kamala? A popular governor like Gavin Newsome or Gretchen Whitmer? Could the candidate even put together a campaign staff and raise the necessary cash in time to be a good candidate? They’re already booking TV ad time for September.

    I mean, I don’t have an answer to those questions. Maybe voters would be like, “Thank god, someone under 75.” and it’d be a landslide. But it could just as easily be total chaos.


  • Biden isn’t the “official nominee” yet but under DNC rules, the pledged delegates are essentially required to vote for the candidate their state selected in the first round. Only if no one has the required 1,968 pledged delegates in the first round does it go to a second round. At that point, 739 Superdelegates — party officials, basically — are allowed to vote and pledged delegates can switch to another candidate.

    Biden currently has 3,894 pledged delegates. Second is Dean Phillips with 4. So, you’d basically have to convince thousands of Biden loyalists to change the party rules so they could vote for another candidate. And then, in the potential second round, convince the Superdelegates to also reject Biden.

    That won’t happen unless he’s literally dead or incapacitated. Both primaries are over and the nominating conventions are a formality. It’d probably be easier to convince the electoral college to vote against the candidate that specifically chose them for their loyalty.

    Edit: here’s a link that explains it in detail https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2024



  • I think if they do a full-blown invasion, they’ll find out that Hezbollah (and quite possibly the regular Lebanese military) is a much bigger, experienced, and sophisticated enemy than Hamas. Also, an invasion of Lebanon could easily attract third parties (like Syria-based militias or even other countries).

    If it’s a limited, restrained operation to create a buffer zone, it might not lead to escalation. There’s apparently a peace deal on the table that would accomplish just that but Hezbollah wants Israel to agree to the “ceasefire for hostages” deal in Gaza first.

    But let’s not forget that Netanyahu is going to jail on corruption charges as soon as he isn’t prime minister. He’s alienated everyone except the extremist parties on the right so, ultimately, they’ll be able to control policy just by threatening to leave the fragile coalition government. So, I don’t know if I’d bet on a limited, restrained operation.






  • As absurd as it seems sometimes, the One China policy has kept the peace for decades. I wouldn’t toss it out without a very, very good reason.

    I mean, to people under 50ish, Taiwan is a stable, functioning democracy with an advanced economy but that didn’t really happen until 1987. It was basically a fascistic military dictatorship prior to that. It’s a much more complicated history than we sometimes acknowledge. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Taiwan_(1945–present)

    I’m an elder millennial, I guess, and I was alive but too young to remember Taiwan’s first real elections. I get that the One China policy might feel like a relic of a bygone era since I know it from history books too. But most world leaders are old enough to remember when Taiwan was a dysfunctional, fascistic military dictatorship. It might require another few generations of peace before it’s fully consolidated.

    I mean, to put it in perspective, Robocop, Lethal Weapon, and Predator came out in 1987. People old enough to see those movies in theaters remember a different era and likely have a fundamentally different understanding of Taiwan/Mainland relations. Xi, Biden, and Trump are all over 70.



  • Even beyond the moral arguments, it’s just stupid. I went to Iceland last summer and I don’t know what 100 fin whales are worth but I guarantee just the people on the two boats I went whale watching on spent more money than Japanese whale meat fetishists. And that was only two boats from two companies. There were dozens of boats going out from Reykjavik and Húsavík every day, at least during the high season.

    Minke whales aren’t endangered but even that hunt creates bad publicity for the country and probably harms the tourism industry. If you have bad luck on your whale watching day, you’ll still see a few minke whales and come away happy. It was mostly families with kids and the kids were stoked to spot any whale.

    I get making exceptions for indigenous people in the Canadian Arctic or wherever but they have a cultural tradition, harvest like 4 whales a year, and use the meat and blubber themselves. But from what I read on my trip and was told by the guides, Icelanders didn’t even eat whale meat unless the whale beached themselves. It wasn’t some key cultural tradition.

    Whalers were literally the oil companies of the 1800’s. I say “Fuck” to them just as much as I say “Fuck” to Exxon, Chevron, Aramco, et al.


  • I get what you’re saying but I’m pretty sure it matters in international law for additional charges against Hamas leadership. There’s, tragically, sexual violence in basically every conflict, and individuals who do it have committed a crime for sure. But proving it’s systematic and used as a tactic would make higher ups in Hamas guilty of (even more) war crimes.

    So, it is important for prosecuting Hamas leadership that there be a proper, legal investigation and that it be proven to be either knowingly allowed or (even worse) ordered as a tactic.

    Obviously, Hamas and Israel have both committed enough war crimes already that the senior leadership will likely be found guilty of something at The Hague (if ever arrested). But properly accounting for all of the war crimes is important for both justice and history.




  • For the 60th anniversary of D-Day, I was in college in DC and we were invited to go to the French embassy’s event to show that appreciation for WWII veterans was multi-generational. They were all being flown to France for a free trip to be thanked.

    I was in line at the buffet and I’m from Louisiana and was a sous chef. A veteran was asking what certain food items were so I was like, “Oh, beef bourguignon? That’s basically beef stew. It’s delicious.” And he was like, “Louisiana? LA. I’m also from LA: Lower Alabama!” and we ended up cutting up and hanging out. He had the best stories.

    It’s one of my favorite memories. Appreciation for D-Day vets is definitely multigenerational and that France does appreciation events for them is really a great thing.