Kovukono

They’re pretty much only in line with the people who like his humor, but SsethTzeentach has some funny ones.

Normally I’d expect to see this stuff on !curatedtumblr@sh.itjust.works

It’s not a sex thing. It’s actually a lot worse.

They didn’t cancel it after the second season, it’s even worse. They released the first half, announced the second half of the first season was coming and renewal for a second, then released the second half and canned the second season. We barely got a single season.

You can’t be here!

Archer: So you’re telling me that the good old boys were drinking whisky and rye… (laughing) …like mixed together?

Robert: Archer, please just…

Archer: I am concerned about the mental health of them good old boys. (gasps)

Robert: What?

Archer: Do you think their jobs were levee-based?

This definitely helped me look at it as a whole, and definitely started me down the right path of getting it. Thanks!

I think this might have been the answer that helped me the most. Most of all, it’s that the Monty Hall problem isn’t about you, it’s almost entirely about the host’s action of revealing doors.

There’s a 98/99 chance he left that door because it’s the car, or 1/99 because it’s the goat (assuming the one left out of calculation is your door which he can’t choose). Your original choice, whether or not you picked the car, is largely irrelevant. His actions can’t affect your door because he can’t choose it

You’re not betting on a new set of 1/2, you’re not even betting on the door itself having a new probability. You’re betting on the act of the host revealing doors.

I can kind of understand the logic behind it, if you assume your door can’t be affected by the probability of it, but the thing that still stumps me about this is how the probability for your door is “locked in.”

You picked a door out of a set, and by opening any number of doors, the host has altered the set. The other door remaining went from being a 99/100 chance of having a goat behind it to being in a set of 98 knowns, and 2 unknowns. While the host can’t choose it if it has a car, he also can’t choose yours. You wind up with 2 identical doors and X number of open doors, with each door having a 50/50 chance given the re-evaluation.

I know this is supposed to be the wrong answer, but I can’t see why it’s wrong. If you have an explanation, I’d love to finally be able to understand this problem.