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Cake day: June 20th, 2023

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  • I mean the real comparison is just: did she get enough votes, in states that Clinton lost, where if those people had all voted for Clinton, then Clinton would have won that state. I don’t know the answer, but even if the numbers did cover the margin, I think saying Stein is therefore a spoiler is problematic for a few reasons:

    1. It ignores the very real number of voters who chose not to vote democratic or vote at all simply because of Clinton as candidate.
    2. it ignores massive mistakes made by a hubristic campaign that couldn’t fathom losing to trump.
    3. it supposes that people that voted green, would have gritted their teeth and instead voted Clinton, which is not a safe assumption.

    Regarding OP’s argument: if Stein is a spoiler, than the libertarians are also spoilers. Since her being a spoiler assumes a majority of her votes would have gone democratic, we can take the same liberty and assume the libertarians would have instead opted for trump. If they had larger vote numbers than the Green Party got, as OP is saying above, then they cancel out greens spoiler-ness, and in fact represent a slight spoiler in favor of the democrats. I don’t really buy this read for the reasons I mentioned above, but OP’s point still kinda stands.

    I’m not personally interested in voting for stein, I’ve heard enough weird stuff about her over the years that I’m not comfortable with her as a candidate. But I don’t buy the constant messaging that “third party votes are wasted votes”. My assumption with people that post these things is that they’re not suggesting it’s OK to not vote. And assumably, they also don’t want you to vote, but vote for the opposition. So it’s just the same old thing: vote the way I want you to.


  • Yes I would tend to agree—it seems anecdotally correct that if you restrict the possibility space for a child down to something very narrow, the opportunity to learn and adapt must reduce as well. Which is probably why “good parenting” is such a tricky concept, because you have to somehow maximize the possibility space while also removing anything that can plausibly kill/hurt your child. A daunting task…

    I have noticed some nephews of mine being particularly limited—they grew up during pandemic years and are home schooled, and they don’t have meaningful interactions with other children or adults, which seems to really be leading to some issues.


  • His argument went one step further as well I think: aside from the literal culling, he argued also that they used their brains far more often to solve actual real problems and avoid harm, and that this active engagement of their brains with their environment likely led to higher “general intelligence” than say safe western world inhabitants. As an employee of the “spreadsheet factory” I find this speculation highly plausible and compelling.


  • I saw possibly these same elephants a year ago during a visit to pilanesbirg, and they were majestic and gorgeous. Our guide was very experienced and was very clear with us that the elephants didn’t want trouble with us, but that they will knock over cars and charge people if they feel like their babies are under threat. We saw some tourists in private cars try and drive up close to a mother helping two babies (calves I guess?) across the road, and she turned on the jeep, stamped and made a very impressive trumpet blare (basically her being like FUCK YOU, BACK OFF) before walking back off.

    I feel bad for the guy, and it’s a sad story, but having seen one of these herds, and seeing how incredibly large and powerful they were, I cannot imaging trying to walk up to them or approach them in any way.

    Seeing animals like these elephants was a humbling experience for me that drove home that we are small, and probably not as special as we like to think. I locked eyes with one while they were eating a tree and I don’t know how to describe it, but it felt like looking at another human—my brain had no doubt that this was a highly intelligent sentient creature. I would rate this visit to pilanesburg as probably one of the most memorable and impactful experiences I’ve ever had.


  • They basically did something similar to what happened to Bernie with the DNC. they did a full court press antisemitism campaign against him, but like many of the charges of antisemitism in the US right now, it was largely based on criticism of Israeli policy AFAIK.

    Edit: to clarify—they ousted him because labor was looking ascendant, and the more centrist and corporatist elements of labor could not stomach the idea of actually having a PM that wanted to do left wing things that aligned with the theoretical purpose of the labor party, so they took him out by getting enough articles published in the famously above-board uk media to force him from leadership.


  • I would say that based on whatever calculus/evidence they have access to, Canada has decided that the threat of an all-out war, or least Israel carpet bombing Lebanon with munitions the US just sent them is high enough to warrant evacuation. That’s an above-average signal that something bad is about to happen, because it’s a big deal to evacuate all those people. It doesn’t mean something is definitely going to happen.

    That said, bibi needs forever war for the time being because he’s facing jail if he gets punted from his position, and they’ve pummeled Gaza about as much as they can at this point while still pretending that they can end Hamas, so murdering civilians in another country is probably starting to look pretty appetizing to him. They’ll still keep slamming Gaza but he needs something big and existential for his domestic audience to keep them from taking him out.

    So long story short, I’d say the probabilities of something like regional conflict happening have been raising pretty sharply lately. Hopefully the Canadian evac will prove to be alarmist, but our timeline hasn’t exactly been going the way I hope last few years so…




  • I feel like originally it was a semi-safe taboo to break that made a standard porn setup seem more forbidden/risqué. It always seemed weird, like how many people have step siblings that also fantasize about them sexually, how big could this be? But it just kept on coming, so to speak.

    Now I think it’s just a meme/SEO thing, where you have to include it even if the video is not even pretending to be about that. Also it happened around the same time that websites were pushing/pivoting into more content creator type things, and so it’s probably related to that as well. Like the annoying face+exaggerated reaction thing on YouTube…

    Either way, always seemed whacky that everything the sites serve is almost completely step-porn on the front page.



  • Yeah I don’t understand the clamour. This sort of situation has happened many, many times. I remember reading about a guy dying in a cave near the Everest summit. Other climbers sat with him and shared water, comfort, but from that location, if he couldn’t move on his own, there was no way he was getting down. Also the numerous “landmark” bodies that the climbers pass right off the trail… there’s no safe way to remove them.

    I think people assume that you can just carry someone out on a stretcher or arrange a helicopter—but people are literally operating on bleeding edge of oxygenation and helicopters can’t get up their for the same reasons… you aren’t going to be able to remove an incapacitated person who needs total physical support from others to move.

    You could say, well it’s fucked up that people are paid to support these climbs, because they need the money, and there’s some validity to that, but in that case it’s not that different from something like deep sea welding or being in a combat unit of a military, etc.