For there to be a civil war, both sides need an army. The US president will have the US army, and the other side might as well have nerf guns. The civil war would last an afternoon.
If there’s going to be anything, it’s an increase in domestic terrorism.
Have you read CIA reports?
Flash pogroms and terrorism. Sometimes by law enforcement. In other words, not a stand up fight, but a bug hunt.
It would be a guerilla collective against a conventional force that’s consistently failed against guerilla tactics.
There’s no way to know how long it’d last or how it’d impact politics, but targeted acts of terrorism in cities would likely become a more common tragedy. It would pretty much gaurantee US states increasing their police forces and personal rights eroding, and I’m not looking forward to that.
Furthermore, the American Civil War was precluded by several decades of escalating tension between the states, not between parties in the federal government. The legal and organizational attributes of a state also served to enable separatist states to even attempt to raise an army (this was by design). Bubba and his buddies will, as you said, be armed with nerf guns comparatively
Bad goes to worse, I do have the option of getting citizenship in the Dominican Republic via my parents.
It’s not exactly an upgrade, but it’s something.
My friend of Jewish descent recently listened to some audio recordings of his grandparents before they fled Germany.
They basically describe similar situations and feeling quite similarly to how he feels today. His wife doesn’t like him talking about it, but he’s sincere: he feels the need to flee.
I don’t blame him one bit.
Muy, muy bueno
Yeah I don’t know about “likely” but it’s not a bad thing to have.
Maybe I’m being naive but I don’t think we’re quite at that point yet. People angry about the 2020 election were a loud minority
Someone made a laundry list of evidence demonstrating it’ll very likely be an actual thing but I can’t find it anywhere. When I do, I’ll post it
EDIT: AHA! I FOUND IT! It’s a Reddit comment, but so it goes. Blatantly ripping off here:
It’s not just the insurrection act.
It includes:
1-Argue that Article 2 of the Constitution gives the president power to do whatever he wants.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/16/politics/trump-agenda-second-term/index.html
2-Fire the civil service and replace it with Trump loyalists.
3-Use the DoJ to target critics
4-Weaken the election security agency
5-Reject climate change
6-Remove all LGBTQ+ protections
https://www.metroweekly.com/2023/09/right-wing-project-2025-seeks-to-eradicate-lgbtq-protections/
7-Bring the Bible into government
For reference, they’re talking about this monstrosity of a plan Trump has set up for if he takes power in November. Don’t actually vote against Biden even if you support Palestine. Shit’s unreal. Shit’s very clear and obvious .50 cal territory.
“America is awful! We need radical change”
“nooo I don’t actually mean it TT…”
Doubt it. Of course skeletor is going to say that.
We can’t be certan that that’ll happen, but no matter if it does, or where you live, shit’s gonna get wild sooner or later. Global warming is getting worse and worse as I’m typing this, wars and straight up genocides are happening everywhere, and fascism is on the rise. Stay safe, for in the case we as a species survive this shitstorm, future generations will rise again. If we don’t, then good night everyone.
No, these guys are way less organized than last time and Donald Trump is getting fucked in court still. I think its less likely now than it was 4 years ago. The GOP is fracturing and losing steam. Senators and governors are still a threat but not in the civil war type of way I don’t think.
What exactly is required to be a threat in the civil war type? Besides Guns and a feeling of not being represented?
Unification.
That’s the main lacking puzzle piece on both sides.
If the left were unified there wouldn’t be a republican in politics.
If the right were unified, you wouldn’t have jackasses running their mouth at every opportunity just to get a news blurb generated about themselves.
The old adage about United we stand, divided we fall? Technically, our divisions are the only thing keeping us up right now.
If we ever come together it will end a nuclear hellfire
Organizing a war against the us army would take a lot of planning. Unless trump wins, controls the army, and enough generals agree.
You guys are giving Republicans way too much credibility.
Better to take their threat as creditable now than to be surprised later
Democrats too. half the country lost a pretty significant right to their own bodily autonomy that they’d taken foregranted for basically their entire life. and they just… rolled over and took it? that’s about the most concrete domestic loss they’ve taken this century, and more concrete than anything else on the table right now, so i honestly don’t know what would have to happen in order for the left to do anything meaningfully violent.
I’m sorry, but what were your expectations towards the Democrats here?
These anti abortion laws were enacted at state level. By Republican state governments whose representatives were elected by the people. What did you want the Democrats to do here? Even if they complained, in the end if they don’t have the majority in the state government, they have no power to do anything.
Even at the federal level, the Senate is 48 Democrat members, 49 Republican members and 3 independents. They don’t have the majority there either.
And in the house of representatives, the Republicans are the majority with 220 members vs 213 as Democrats. They still don’t have the majority there.
And if you look at the supreme court, Trump packed it with Republican judges.
So what are your expectations towards the Democrats??? If people don’t elect them, they can’t do anything.
The president can’t step in and cancel any of these anti abortion laws because it’s the will of the people. (In a way)
That’s what happens when people are apathetic and don’t go out to vote.
what you say is entirely consistent. it’s a strong belief in democracy as a process with no bounds/constraints, as an ultimate good in and of itself. and it’s sort of my point: in the “civil war” frame, Democrats are super unlikely to instigate violence. your neighbors will vote away all the things you value, out of religious beliefs you disagree with or merely out of spite, but that’s okay, so long as they do so democratically.
i meet enough democrats (little d) who say they wouldn’t comply with a draft, even if enacted democratically. my thoughts are that there’s at least a few things similar to that: decisions where your own interests shouldn’t be subservient to the will of an abstract majority. the surprise with abortion for me is that for my whole life, that was de-facto such an example. it wasn’t treated as a thing that had been decided democratically, just as a thing which was. then some people far away said “abortion should be decided democratically”, and the number of people around me saying “actually no it shouldn’t” was way smaller (i.e. zero) than the number of people who say that about things like the draft. i still don’t know how to square that, but to answer your “what were your expectations towards the Democrats here” question, well, you asking that is the answer to why i think “civil war” talk is so beyond the pale.
I promise you that even if everyone in my state turned up to vote, we’d still elect fascists. This is clearly a system failure.
Probably, at some point. Wealth disparity is wrecking a huge swathe of the population’s way of life. They’re restless and want change.
Politically, divisiveness is continually reaching new heights. Politicians, republicans for the most part, are more reactionary and less productive. They are now fueling the fear and anger of their constituents and it won’t end well.
The US right now looks like Germany just before they put the Nazi party in power.
Lots of FUD, angry constituents, a faschism-adjacent party on the ballots, and lots of hate.
Edited: I wrote a bunch of stuff that my American grade education taught me about Nazi Germany but it was wrong.
Like how Nazi Germany was very one minded - it wasnt. The Nazi party at best represented 33-39% before they stopped counting.
Or that the population they targeted was more or less numerous. Trans people are < 1% of the population. The Jewish population was right around . 79% by best estimate prior to becoming in very real danger.
Great article, thank you!
There’s unfortunately a lot to compare with the two parties.
Come to Canada, y’all
No, don’t. We need to build more homes first and we’re already way behind.
We’ll bring construction workers and food overly-laden in sugar and salt
Albertan here, please don’t it’s just 2015 era US politics instead right now
What safety plan? We can already get shot at Walmart.
🤔 Do you have any family or friends abroad or by the Canadian border? Can you get to the Canadian border in late October? There’s a bus that’ll take you over the Ambassador Bridge in Detroit, and all you need is a passport book or card and a good excuse. Just tell them you’re going to gamble at the casinos there.
There’s a thousand mile expanse of woods and bullshit across the northern states where you could just walk through the forests into Canada.
Or you could drive into Mexico if you know anybody there, such as that is.
Cruise to the Bahamas, perhaps…?
There’s a thousand mile expanse of woods and bullshit across the northern states where you could just walk through the forests into Canada.
I’ve always wanted to get eaten by a moose.
I mean, if it’s a choice between getting eaten by Canada’s moose army and being thrown in a literal concentration camp, I think it’s an easy pick
I left the country to study abroad in 2012, and after 2016 was firmly in the camp of never moving back
Can I ask where you moved?
Sure, I moved to study abroad in Salzburg Austria and graduated here It’s a very pretty city
How do they react to migrants and how long did it take for you to integrate?
Daily reminder that memes can’t predict the future.
After, no doubt, but how soon? Whoever has control of the major bulk of the military writes the next version of the US though because as much as Cleatus & Co want to think otherwise their stash of AR15s isn’t going to to a damn thing if a tank is rolling up the street.
🤔🤔🤔
I think it depends a lot on who wins the election.
I believe there might not actually be a winner. The race could be so close both sides will dispute it, and turn to violence because they feel the election was stolen from them.
We see signs of this now – younger voters are turning away from Biden because of Palestine, and Trump is leading in several key swing states but only by an ass-hair.
So I cast doubt on the people who think this’ll be one-sided against Trump supporters. Also they themselves have tanks, it’s legal to own them. But people conveniently forget that.
fuck the 2 party system pick libertarian
I’m not sure if it’s even possible for a third party to win an election with the way the electoral system is set up.
Thus the ‘whoever controls the military’ qualification. I like to think that the folks charged with defending the nation would hold for the established order, but it’s also a collective of individuals that could go warlord and throw in with a new revolutionary force.
So long as we have mass precarity this is going to continue to be a risk. And we’re going to have to deal with renegade MAGAs and Project 2025.
After 2016, I don’t trust the people of the US not to vote in fashy autocrats.