ELI5 about the Chinese real estate market in general? This is how they got to where they are today:

• Investing in China sucks. The stock market is extremely volatile and there seem to be a lot of shady activities, banks get bank runs so you couldn’t even put too much money in banks, etc
• In contrast, real estate is heavily subsidized by China’s state capitalistic approach, so it became a really “stable” investment… because government subsidized it
• Because of this, everyone buys or want to buy real estate in China. In fact, people are willing to buy places that would almost never be lived in, because of possibility of appreciation… so we’re approaching NFT-level bullshit here
• Additional point: because of the above point, Chinese investors would buy real estate even when abroad & the RE market is not nearly as favorable. Obviously this causes some frictions… like a good chunk of Canadian citizen blaming Chinese ppl on raising home prices
• Chinese economy is now facing hardship, so the real estate bubble is finally showing signs of leakage in the past few years

I am not an economist and cannot offer insight as to whether this would turn into an 2008 moment… Nevertheless, I am aware that Soho is an extremely well-known developer, and that the Chinese economy is to a large extent built on top of real estate. And despite how much I dislike China, it is one of the world’s largest economies, and large economies don’t just go belly-up without inflicting heavy damage on the whole world… So this is not good news by any means.

Currently the real estate market seems to be on very shaky grounds as developers have debts that they’re not being able to pay off. So bonds whose coupons are due are not being paid.

Chinese citizens generally pay up front a certain amount (or fully) long before they move into their apartments. This money is generally used to complete construction. But developers seem to have used this to buy other properties for construction, over leveraging themselves. And now that construction is wayyy behind schedule and the people still can’t move in, they’re refusing to pay their mortgages causing banks to pull back lending and become more strict with debt restructuring for developers.

Tldr: Way too many homes built for people who don’t want them. Lots of loans might be unpaid. Might affect other sectors.

When you actually read the article:

Soho China reported a net profit of 13.61 million yuan for the first six months of the year, down 93% from a year earlier.

Soho China also warned of “material uncertainty” over its future due to an unpaid tax bill at a subsidiary that manages Wangjing Soho, its main office and retail property in central Beijing.

The subsidiary received a notice from the local tax authority in August 2022 ordering it to pay 1.73 billion yuan in land appreciation tax by Sept. 1 of that year…1.98 billion yuan, including surcharges, remains outstanding.

The local tax authority could add extra penalties equivalent to between 50% of and five times the outstanding amount due. The tax collection law also allows the local authority to seize and sell those properties.

If Soho China is deemed to have defaulted on the tax payment, a portion of the company’s bank borrowings with a total principal and interest value of 4.24 billion yuan will become due immediately, under cross-default arrangements.

The developer’s total borrowings stood at more than 16 billion yuan at the end of June, while its unrestricted cash and cash equivalents came in at 627.25 million yuan. The company has entered into supplemental agreements with its major lenders to revise repayment terms for a total principal of 7.27 billion yuan, including a missed principal repayment of about 60 million yuan that was due in December 2022.

Soho said there is “no indication” that the banks involved in the cross-default arrangement will demand immediate repayment, based on their latest communications, but the company noted "the existence of a material uncertainty that may cast significant doubt about the Group’s ability to continue as a going concern" in the Friday filing.